As of the last week of July, Congress had an approval rating of 10% and a disapproval score of 84%. [Quinnipiac]
[WW relies on the Cook Political Report for the House data below. Data as of 7/28/17.]
The House of Representatives
- Democrats 194
- Republicans 241
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Safe in 2017 | 175 | 189 |
| Likely | 10 | 23 |
| Lean | 7 | 21 |
| Tossup | 3 | 7 |
There is considerable speculation that given the way this administration is “operating”, the prospects of the Democrats retaking the House in 2018 are getting better and better. These speculations are a bit premature.
“Multiple indicators, including generic congressional ballot polls, President Trump’s tepid approval, and recent special election results, point to broad midterm danger for Republicans. But as we noted earlier this month, at this point in the cycle it can be trickier to predict individual races than the national environment. Are Democrats within range of picking up the 24 seats they need? Yes, but it’s not obvious which races will materialize and which won’t.
“To win the House, Democrats will probably need to put at least 50 GOP seats in play.” [David Wasserman, Cook Political Report, 7/28/17]
[WW uses a combination of the Cook Political Report, Inside Politics and Sabato to create the chart below.]
The Senate
- Democrats 52
- Republicans 46
- Independents 2
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Seats not up in 2018 | 23 | 44 |
| Safe in 2018 | 12 | 7 |
| Likely | 6 Stabenow Menendez Casey Kaine King |
0 |
| Lean | 3 Nelson Brown Baldwin |
2 Flake Heller |
| Tossup | 4 Donnelly McCaskill Heitkamp Manchin |
0 |
Democrats are less approving of the way Democrats in Congress are handling their job than Republicans are of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job.
Democrats approved of how Democrats in Congress are doing their job by 49% to 45% while Republicans approved of how Republicans in Congress are doing their job by 53% to 39%.
Independents are disapproving of how both Democrats and Republicans are handling their jobs. 65% of Independents disapprove of how Democrats are doing their job while 70% of Independents disapprove of how Republicans are doing their job. [Winston Group, 6/23/17]