State partisanship is shifting toward the Democrats as the 2018 election is on the horizon. The following is based on adults being asked for their party identification and if they say they are independent they are probed for the party leanings. (Solid states are those in which a party has a 10 point or greater advantage; leaning states are those in which a party has an advantage of 5-10 points; competitive states are those in which the advantage of either party is 5 points or less.)
| 2016 | 2017 | |
| Solid Democratic | 13 | 15 |
| Lean Democratic | 1 | 4 |
| Competitive | 15 | 15 |
| Lean Republican | 7 | 3 |
| Solid Republican | 14 | 13 |
| [Gallup, 2/1/18] | ||
If the elections for Congress were held today, 54% of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic candidate while 38% would be voting for the Republican candidate. [CNN SSRS, 2/23/18]
Congress’ approval rating continues at a subterranean level.
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Real Clear Politics | 15.2% | 73.7% |
| USA Tdy/Suff 2/24/18 | 15% | 75% |
| Quinnipiac 2/5/18 | 17% | 77% |
| Fox News 1/23/18 | 15% | 70% |
| CNN 1/18/18 | 16% | 78% |
| CBS News 1/16/18 | 18% | 75% |
| Quinnipiac 1/16/18 | 16% | 78% |
| Quinnipiac 12/4/17 | 12% | 80% |
| Reuters/Ipsos 11/28/17 | 19% | 69% |
| Reuters/Ipsos 10/31/17 | 22% | 69% |
| Reuters/Ipsos 9/26/17 | 20% | 69% |
| Monmouth 9/19/17 | 15% | 73% |
| Fox News 8/29/17 | 15% | 74% |
| Quinnipiac 8/23/17 | 10% | 83% |
| CBS News 8/6/17 | 19% | 73% |
| CNN/ORC 4/25/17 | 22% | 75% |
| Quinnipiac 3/6/17 | 18% | 20% |
| NBC/WSJ 2/22/17 | 29% | 60% |
As of February 22, 2018, 431 women are running or are likely to run for the U.S. House of Representatives. This compares to 212 women who were running at this time in 2016. [NPR]
[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]
The House of Representatives
- Democrats 195
- Republicans 240
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Safe in 2018 | 175 | 166 |
| Likely | 11 | 29 |
| Lean | 5 | 19 |
| Tossup | 3 | 27 |
For those of you who do not follow Congress and particularly the House of Representatives on a regular basis you might find interesting the full House’s “important” schedule for March 6, 2018.
The House of Representatives: In Session
– Voting on a bill to require financial regulators to review current rules more frequently to ensure they’re not outdated.
– Voting on a bill to prohibit tax dollars from being spent on paintings of federal officials and employees.
– Voting on a bill to prohibit political appointees from taking career civil service jobs and “burrowing” into the bureaucracy
The Senate
[WW used a combination of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to create the Senate chart below.]
- Republicans 51
- Democrats 47
- Independents 2
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Seats not up in 2018 | 23 | 43 |
| Safe in 2018 | 15 | 4 |
| Likely | 5 King Tester Casey Smith Baldwin |
2 Tennessee (open) Cruz |
| Lean | 3 Brown Nelson |
0 |
| Toss-Ups | 4 Donnelly McCaskill Manchin Heitkamp |
2 Heller Arizona |
Looking at the recent Gallup partisanship ranking of states above in which the Senate elections are other than safe-
– Maine is Solid Democratic
– Minnesota has moved from Competitive to Democratic
– Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia have moved from Republican to Competitive
– Missouri Leans Republican
– Pennsylvania, Texas, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada and Arizona are Competitive
– North Dakota, Montana and Tennessee are Solid Republican