Congress’ approval rating continues at a subterranean level.
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Real Clear Politics 3/27 | 13.8% | 75% |
| Reuters/Ipsos 3/27/18 | 20% | 73% |
| Quinnipiac 3/5/18 | 13% | 80% |
| USA Tdy/Suff 2/24/18 | 15% | 75% |
| Quinnipiac 2/5/18 | 17% | 77% |
| Fox News 1/23/18 | 15% | 70% |
| CNN 1/18/18 | 16% | 78% |
| CBS News 1/16/18 | 18% | 75% |
| Quinnipiac 12/4/17 | 12% | 80% |
| Reuters/Ipsos 11/28/17 | 19% | 69% |
| Reuters/Ipsos 10/31/17 | 22% | 69% |
| Reuters/Ipsos 9/26/17 | 20% | 69% |
| Fox News 8/29/17 | 15% | 74% |
| CNN/ORC 4/25/17 | 22% | 75% |
| Quinnipiac 3/6/17 | 18% | 20% |
| NBC/WSJ 2/22/17 | 29% | 60% |
As of this writing, just 379 of 435 House districts will have incumbents running this November. That’s the second-lowest total of the post-World War II era.
- The 56 total open seat districts include 37 Republican-held seats and 19 Democrat-held seats.
- The best pickup opportunities for both parties come in these open seats.
- Since our last open seat update, the Democratic potential in these seats has grown. It’s possible the Democrats could get a third or more of the way toward flipping the House just through netting gains among the open seats. [Sabato]
When voting for Congress in 2018, will voters be signaling support or opposition to Trump?
That is the question that the Winston Group asked in its most recent survey of “Winning the Issues”. 30% said they would be voting in support of Trump while 39% said their vote will be in opposition to Trump. Here are the other results.
| Overall | GOP | Ind | Dem | |
| Support for Trump | 30% | 69% | 17% | 6% |
| Opposition to Trump | 39 | 7 | 34 | 71 |
| Trump will not be a factor | 22 | 18 | 37 | 14 |
| Don’t plan to vote | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| Don’t know | 6 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| [WG Discussion Points, 3/28/18] | ||||
Americans currently prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats by 50% to 40%. [NBC/WSJ, 3/14/18]
If the 2018 election were held today, 46% of Americans would vote for the Democratic candidate while 41% would vote for the Republican candidate. [Fox News, 3/21/18]
At least at this time, high interest in the November election is about the same as it was for the last three mid-term elections.
At the present time, 44% of Americans say they are very interested in the November 2018 elections.
At this time in 2014, 41% said they were very interested in the November elections.
In 2010, 47% said they were very interested
In 2006, 45% said they were very interested.
[NBC/WSJ, 3/14/18]
[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]
The House of Representatives
- Democrats 195
- Republicans 240
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Safe in 2018 | 177 | 167 |
| Likely | 12 | 26 |
| Lean | 10 | 19 |
| Tossup | 3 | 21 |
The Senate
[WW used a combination of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to create the Senate chart below.]
- Republicans 51
- Democrats 47
- Independents 2
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Seats not up in 2018 | 23 | 42 |
| Safe in 2018 | 17 | 5 |
| Likely | 3 Tester Casey Baldwin |
1 Nebraska |
| Lean | 2 Brown Nelson |
0 |
| Toss-Ups | 4 Donnelly McCaskill Manchin Heitkamp |
2 Heller Arizona (open) Tennessee (open) |