Congress’ approval rating continues at a subterranean level.
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Real Clear Politics 6/5 | 16.6% | 70.6% |
| Real Clear Politics 5/1 | 16.6% | 72.6% |
| Real Clear Politics 4/2 | 13.6% | 75% |
| Real Clear Politics 3/2 | 15.8% | 72.6% |
| Real Clear Politics 2/4 | 16.2% | 73.9% |
| Real Clear Politics 1/4 | 15.8% | 72.6% |
32% of Americans say that their member of Congress deserves to be re-elected but 53% would prefer to give a new person a chance.
In general, 50% of us would prefer that Congress be controlled by Democrats while 40% prefer Republican control. [NBC/WSJ poll, 6/4/18]
The House of Representatives
[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below.]
- Democrats 195
- Republicans 240
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Safe in 2018 | 180 | 157 |
| Likely | 12 | 29 |
| Lean | 9 | 26 |
| Tossup | 2 | 21 |
The current consensus seems to be that the Democrats are “likely” to take over the House. Estimates by people or entities on which WW relies, range from 50/50 to 65/35.
Part of the Democratic optimism is based on the fact that so far 59 congressional districts – 39 held by Republicans and 20 held by Democrats – will not have an incumbent running for re-election.
The Senate
[WW used a combination of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections to create the Senate chart below.]
There have been a few changes since the last issue of the Watch. Likely Dem grew from 2 to 4; Lean Democrat dropped from 3 to 1. On the Republican side, Safe seats moved from 4 to 5; Likely Republican moved from 2 to 1.
At the moment the best that the Democrats can hope to do is get to 50/50. In order for that to happen, the Democrats would have to hold four of the five seats in the Democratic toss-ups below and the Republicans would have to lose two of the three seats they have in the toss-up column.
- Republicans 51
- Democrats 47
- Independents 2
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Seats not up in 2018 | 23 | 42 |
| Safe in 2018 | 16 | 5 |
| Likely | 4 Casey Baldwin Tester Smith |
1 Cruz |
| Lean | 1 Brown |
0 |
| Toss-Ups | 5 Donnelly McCaskill Manchin Heitkamp Nelson |
3 Heller Arizona (open) Tennessee (open) |
More than 1,900 men have been U.S. senators. Only 52 women have had that distinction in the history of the country – 23 are serving today. [Senator Amy Klobuchar in Axios, 5/29/18]