President Trump consistently does better among registered/likely voters than among all adults.
On June 10, 2018, Gallup found (among All Adults) that 42% of Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance and 54% disapprove. This is the highest job approval rating that Gallup has reported since Trump became president.
Gallup is no longer providing a daily approval rating of the president. In the future, these reports will be dated weekly.
Beginning with this edition of the Watch I am including a first day of the month polling summary (Registered and Likely Voters) by FiveThirtyEight.
| Gallup (all adults) | FiveThirtyEight (Registered / Likely voters) | |||
| Date | Approval | Disapproval | Approval | Disapproval |
| 6/11/18 | — | — | 41.5% | 52.7% |
| 6/10/18 | 42% | 54% | — | — |
| 6/1/18 | — | — | 41.6% | 52.7% |
| 5/20/18 | 42% | 54% | — | — |
| 5/1/18 | — | — | 43.8% | 52% |
| 4/8/18 | 41% | 54% | — | — |
| 4/1/18 | — | — | 41.4% | 53.7% |
| 3/11/18 | 39% | 56% | — | — |
| 3/1/18 | — | — | 42.7% | 53.2% |
| 2/11/18 | 40% | 57% | — | — |
| 2/1/18 | — | — | 42.0% | 53.3% |
| 1/14/18 | 38% | 57% | — | — |
| 1/1/18 | — | — | 39.5% | 55.8% |
| 12/1/17 | 33% | 62% | 38% | 55.9% |
| 11/1/17 | 38% | 58% | 37.8% | 56.8% |
| 10/1/17 | 37% | 57% | 38.7% | 55.4% |
| 9/1/17 | 34% | 61% | 37.3% | 57.3% |
The following are some additional looks at the President’s job performance. The numbers below are of registered voters unless followed by an “A” which means “all voters”. (QUPIAC = Quinnipiac)
| Date | NBC / WSJ | WP / ABC | CNN / ORC | NYT / CBS | FOX | QUPIAC |
| JUNE ’18 | 44/53 | xx | xx | xx | 45/51 | 44/51 |
| MAY ’18 | xx | xx | 44/51 | 40/55cbsA | xx | xx |
| APR ’18 | 39/57A | 44/54 | xx | xx | 44/53 | 39/54 |
| MAR ’18 | 43/53A | xx | 42/54 | 38/57cbsA | 45/52 | 40/53 |
| FEB ’18 | xx | xx | 39/56 | xx | 43/53 | 37/38 |
| JAN ’18 | 39/57A | 38/58 | 43/53 | 37/58cbsA | 45/53 | 36/58 |
| DEC ’17 | 41/56 | xxx | 36/59cnn | 36/57 cbsA | xxx | 37/57 |
| NOV ’17 | xxx | xxx | 38/57cnn | xxx | xxx | 38/55 |
| JAN ’17 | xxx | xxx | 44/53 | 40/48 cbs | xxx | 36/44 |
The following are job approval numbers from Gallup for the last nine presidents and Trump. As you can see, Trump’s job approval rating by the public at large is the worst of any president at this point in their tenure.
Job Approval – Roughly 18 months into the 1st term
| GW Bush | 74% (6/02) |
| Kennedy | 71% (6/62) |
| GHW Bush | 67% (6/90) |
| Eisenhower | 62% (6/54) |
| Nixon | 55% (6/70) |
| Clinton | 49% (6/94) |
| Obama | 46% (6/10) |
| Reagan | 45% (6/82) |
| Carter | 44% (6/78) |
| Trump | 42% (6/18) |
On the economy, Trump’s approval ratings have been quite consistent over the last couple of months. Since February his approval rating has exceeded his disapproval rating.
| Approve | Disapprove | ||
| 6/5/18 | 49% | 46% | Quinnipiac |
| 6/5/18 | 49.2% | 44.8% | RCP average 5/2-6/5 |
| 5/6/18 | 50.3% | 44.8% | RCP average 4/6-5/6 |
| 5/6/18 | 47% | 46% | CBS News – all voters |
| 5/5/18 | 54% | 42% | CNN – Reg voters |
| 4/24/18 | 47% | 47% | Fox News |
| 4/11/18 | 49% | 46% | ABC/WP |
| 4/9/18 | 47% | 48% | Quinnipiac |
| 3/11/18 | 46% | 48% | CBS News |
| 2/27/18 | 49% | 44% | CBS News |
| 1/16/18 | 46% | 49% | CBS News |
On foreign policy, Trump’s approval ratings have not even come close to his disapproval rating during this year.
| Approve | Disapprove | ||
| 6/5/18 | 40% | 52% | Quinnipiac |
| 6/5/18 | 41.6% | 51% | RCP average 5/2-6/5 |
| 5/8/18 | 43.2% | 52.6% | RCP average 4/20-5/8 |
| 5/6/18 | 45% | 49% | CNN – Registered Voters |
| 4/9/18 | 39% | 55% | Quinnipiac |
| 3/25/18 | 41% | 52% | CNN |
| 3/5/18 | 33% | 61% | Quinnipiac |
| 2/5/18 | 37% | 57% | Quinnipiac |
| 1/16/18 | 36% | 60% | Quinnipiac |
About President Trump
President Trump’s favorite rallying cry is “Make America Great Again.” After the manner in which he has attacked most if not all of America’s allies, perhaps his new rallying cry should be “America Will Go It Alone.”
His continued fascination with authoritarians is once again evidenced by his declaration that Russia should be readmitted to what was once the G8. Interestingly he was joined in this suggestion by the new Prime Minister of Italy. [WW]
And while we cannot know how it will all come out in the end, he is the first U.S. president to sit down with the head of North Korea. Here is a short summary of the event by NBC’s Andrea Mitchell in Singapore: “Now that we’ve been given their statement it is far less than advertised. No new commitments. No timetable. No definitions. Glad they met but no breakthroughs.”
The unemployment rate has dropped one full point from 4.8% to 3.8% in the time since Trump was inaugurated.
Trump has shown that if you can write in a real and captivating way, you can dominate the conversation – for free. The cost of entry on Facebook, Twitter and whatever platform follows is zilch. He also showed early in the campaign that if you’re not too constipated to roll with the news, cable shows will give you billions in free airtime. (As president, he has hidden out on “Fox & Friends,” proving the pipeline to true believers is equally easy and free). [Axios AM, 5/13/18]
“It is not possible to overestimate the influence cable TV has over Trump. And we should never forget that.” [Chris Cillizza, 5/31/18]
“Trump believes he is always right.” –Tony Schwartz, Co-Author of Trump’s book, “The Art of the Deal”
One thing is certain, whether he is in office for 4 years or 8 years, Trump will have a long term effect on the federal judiciary. His goal seems to be to appoint “originalists” in the image of Justice Anton Scalia. The number of Appeals Court Judges that he has appointed is particularly dramatic.
There are 94 judicial districts in the United States including at least 1 in each state, D.C and Puerto Rico. There is 1 Supreme Court, 13 Courts of Appeals, including the District of Columbia, and 667 District Courts. [There are some specialty federal courts that are not included in the following totals.]
There are 9 Supreme Court Justices, 167 Appeals Court Justices and 667 District Court Judges.
| Nominated and confirmed to date | ||||
| Total | Supreme Court | Appeals Court | District Court | |
| Trump – thru 6/8/18 | 42 | 1 | 21 | 20 |
| Obama – 8 years | 329 | 2 | 55 | 268 |
| GW Bush – 8 years | 327 | 2 | 62 | 261 |
| Clinton – 8 years | 378 | 2 | 66 | 305 |
| GHW Bush – 4 years | 193 | 2 | 42 | 148 |
| Reagan – 8 years | 383 | 3 | 83 | 290 |
| Carter – 4 years | 262 | 0 | 56 | 203 |
| [uscourts.gov] | ||||
President Donald Trump mistakenly said he approved a military pay raise for the “first time in 10 years.” He meant to say it was the largest pay raise, the White House says. It is the largest in eight years. But pay increases are determined by a statutory formula.
Usually when people say stupid or cruel things they apologize and move on rather than defiantly stand by their statements. But apologies don’t happen in Trump world, and it certainly didn’t happen in the case of White House staffer Kelly Sadler’s callous remarks about John McCain.
Subsequently, Kelly Sadler did leave the White House staff but not because of her comment about McCain. She got cross ways with Mercedes Schlapp, the WH strategic Communications Director. [USA Today]
Once you’ve worked for Trump for a while you learn that the worst thing you can do, the biggest show of weakness, is to apologize. Trump never does and never did (with one exception–the “Access Hollywood” tape). So, staff know that if they publicly apologize they’re actually MORE likely to incur Trump’s wrath than if they just move on. [Axios, 5/10/18]