National polls find Democrats leading on the question of whether folks want Democrats or Republicans to control the Congress after the 2018 elections.
| DEM | GOP | ||
| 49% | 42% | 10/13-16 | Fox News |
| 53% | 42% | 10/8-11 | ABC/WP |
| 54% | 41% | 10/4-7 | CNN |
| 49% | 42% | 9/16-19 | Fox News |
| 51% | 43% | 9/16-19 | NBC/WSJ |
| 52% | 38% | 8/26-29 | ABC/WP |
| 50% | 42% | 8/18-22 | NBC/WSJ |
| 49% | 38% | 8/19-21 | Fox News |
| 52% | 41% | 8/9-12 | CNN |
| 49% | 37% | 7/17-23 | Kaiser Family Foundation |
| 51% | 39% | 7/18-23 | Quinnipiac |
| 49% | 43% | 7/15-18 | NBC/WSJ |
To date, 185 Democratic candidates have taken the “no corporate PAC money” pledge. Beyond the value of the pledge in their campaigns, first time candidates have not traditionally been big recipients of corporate PAC money. It is those who are already in office who are the primary recipients.
Congress’ approval rating continue at a subterranean level.
| Approve | Disapprove | |
| Real Clear Politics 10/16 | 19.6% | 71.4% |
| Real Clear Politics 9/5 | 18.4% | 71.6% |
| Real Clear Politics 8/4 | 14.8% | 73.5% |
| Real Clear Politics 7/5 | 15.7% | 72% |
| Real Clear Politics 6/5 | 16.6% | 70.6% |
| Real Clear Politics 5/1 | 16.6% | 72.6% |
| Real Clear Politics 4/2 | 13.6% | 75% |
| Real Clear Politics 3/2 | 15.8% | 72.6% |
| Real Clear Politics 2/4 | 16.2% | 73.9% |
| Real Clear Politics 1/4/18 | 15.8% | 72.6% |
The “single most/very important issues” in determining who folks vote for in the coming election are:
- The economy – 78%
- Reducing the influence of special interests and corruption in Washington -77%
- Health care – 75%
[NBC/WSJ, 9/19/18]
66% of registered voters are “somewhat/very satisfied” with the choice of congressional candidates in their district. This is also true of:
- 68% of white voters
- 64% of black voters
- 56% of Hispanic voters
- 54% of those age 18-29
- 74% of those age 65+
[PEW, 10/15]
The Battleground
The Washington Post, along with the Schar School at George Mason University, surveyed 2,672 likely voters in 69 battleground congressional districts.
In 2016 these districts favored Republican candidates over Democratic ones 56% to 41%. In this poll these 69 districts favor the Democratic candidates over Republicans 50% to 46%. The following are a series of findings from that survey.
Who are the voters in these districts?
| Battleground | All Districts | |
| White | 78% | 71% |
| Black | 7% | 12% |
| Hispanic | 9% | 11% |
| College graduates | 32% | 28% |
| Non-college | 68% | 72% |
63 of these districts are currently held by Republicans. 6 are held by Democrats.
Trump’s job approval number in all of these districts is 43%. 91% of those who approve are voting for the GOP candidate.
Trump’s job disapproval number in these districts is 47%. 88% of those who disapprove are voting for the Dem candidate.
48 districts were won by Trump
- Trump’s job approval rating is 46%
- Likely voters split 48% to 47% for the Democratic candidate
21 districts were won by Clinton
- Trump’s job approval rating is 38%
- Likely voters split 53% to 43% for the Democratic candidate
The number of those surveyed saying that each of the following issues is “extremely” important:
| Supreme Court and other judicial nominations | 64% |
| Donald Trump | 60% |
| Healthcare | 57% |
| Economy | 55% |
| Immigration | 52% |
| Gun violence | 41% |
| Mueller Investigation | 35% |
| International trade | 33% |
However, “when pushed as to the single most important issue influencing their vote” there is a different order of significance.
#1 – Trump 26%
#2 – Economy 19%
#3 – Judicial nominations 16%
For self-identified Democrats and Independents, the order of issues of greatest influence is:
#1 – Trump 40%
#2 – Healthcare 20%
Among self-identified Republicans and Independents, the order of issues of greatest influence is:
#1 – Economy 29%
#2 – Judicial nominations 24%
#3 – Immigration 17%
#4 – Trump 15%
[All of the above is based on an article written by Dan Balz and Scott Clement, WP, 10/9/18]
The House of Representatives
[WW uses David Wasserman and the Cook Political Report for the House chart below. 10/12/18]
- Democrats 195
- Republicans 240
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Safe in 2018 | 182 | 145 |
| Likely | 12 | 27 |
| Lean | 14 | 24 |
| Tossup | 2 | 29 |
The Senate
[WW used a combination of the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato to create the Senate chart below.]
There have been a few changes, one of them significant, since the last issue of the Watch. Safe Democratic seats dropped from 16 to 15 as Menendez moved from Safe to Likely Democratic at which point Likely Democrat moved from 6 to 7. Democratic Toss-Ups moved from 4 to 3 as Heitkamp moved from Democratic Toss-Up to Lean Republican.
- Republicans 51
- Democrats 47
- Independents 2
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Seats not up in 2018 | 23 | 42 |
| Safe in 2018 | 15 | 5 |
| Likely | 7 Casey Baldwin Tester Smith Brown Manchin Menendez |
1 Cruz |
| Lean | 1 Heitkamp |
|
| Toss-Ups | 3 Donnelly McCaskill Nelson |
3 Heller Arizona (open) Tennessee (open) |
At the moment, Ted Cruz is heading for re-election. Whatever the result, this election will always be known as the Senate election in which one of the candidates set a new fundraising record. Through the first week of October 2018, Beto O’Rourke raised $62 million. He even surpassed the record set by Hillary Clinton in 2006 when she raised $52 million. Ted Cruz has raised $28 million. [WP, 10/11/18]