The 59th presidential election will take place on November 3, 2020, 361 days from today.
In 2008, Democratic voting, often in urban districts, encompassed 38% of U.S. landmass as compared to Republican districts which contained 61% of the landmass. Ten years later the Democratic share of landmass has dropped to 20% of the map while the Republican share has jumped to 80%.
For the record, as of October 28, 2019, 916 people have filed presidential campaign committees with the Federal Election Commission; including 286 as Democrats, 134 as Republicans, 42 as Libertarians and 18 as Green Party candidates. [Ballotpedia]
83% of Republicans give Democrats a “cold rating” on a “feeling thermometer” while 79% of Democrats rate Republicans the same way.
Among Republicans, 64% say Democrats are close-minded and 63% say Democrats are unpatriotic. Conversely among Democrats, 75% say Republicans are close-minded but only 23% of Democrats see Republicans as unpatriotic.
73% of most Republican and Democratic voters say that not only do they disagree over plans and policies with the members of the other party, but also, they cannot agree on basic facts.
61% of Americans say that the Democratic party “is too extreme in its positions” while 63% say that same thing about the Republican party. [PEW 10/10/19]
Running in the Democratic Primary
26 individuals announced they were seeking the Democratic nomination for president and now there are 16. As of November 1, 2019, ten have decided to end their candidacies or have taken no discernable actions toward election.
Michael Bennet (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
Joe Biden (D) – former Vice President, former U.S. Senator – Age 76
Cory Booker (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 49
Steve Bullock (D) – Governor of Montana – Age 53
Pete Buttigieg (D) – Mayor of South Bend, Indiana – Age 37
Julian Castro (D) – former HUD Secretary – Age 44
John Delaney (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 55
Tulsi Gabbard (D) – U.S. Representative – Age 37
Kamala Harris (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
Amy Klobuchar (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 58
Bernie Sanders (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 77
Tom Steyer (D) – Entrepreneur – Age 62
Joe Sestak (D) – former U.S. Representative – 67
Elizabeth Warren (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 69
Marianne Williamson – Spiritualist, teacher – Age 66
Andrew Yang – Entrepreneur – Age 44
Have Left the Field
Mike Gravel (D) – former U.S. Senator – Age 88
Eric Swalwell D) – U.S. Representative –Age 39
John Hickenlooper (D) – Governor of Colorado – Age 67
Jay Inslee (D) – Governor of Washington – Age 68
Seth Moulton (D) – U.S. Representative – 40
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 52
Bill DeBlasio (D) – Mayor of New York, New York – Age 58
Wayne Messam (D) – Mayor of Miramar, Florida – Age 44 [Has taken no actions that are identifiable except announcing]
Tim Ryan (D) – U.S. Representative – Age 45
Beto O’Rourke (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 46
86 days from today, the primary/caucus season will begin starting with the Iowa caucuses on February 3, 2020 and continuing thru the New Hampshire Primary, the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Primary on February 29th.
The next round starts on March 3rd when 14 primaries will be held. California is the largest state in that group.
| Iowa 11/1/19 | New Hampshire 10/29/18 |
Nevada 9/26/18 |
|||
| Warren | 22% | Sanders | 21% | Biden | 22% |
| Sanders | 19% | Warren | 18% | Sanders | 22% |
| Buttigieg | 18% | Biden | 15% | Warren | 18% |
| Biden | 17% | Buttigieg | 10% | Buttigieg | 4% |
| South Carolina 10/21/19 |
California 10/18/19 |
||
| Biden | 30% | Warren | 28% |
| Warren | 19% | Sanders | 24% |
| Sanders | 13% | Biden | 19% |
| Buttigieg | 11% | Buttigieg | 9% |
Looking at the “national mood” in the Democratic nomination contest, Joe Biden remains at the top of the heap. Elizabeth Warren has a strong hold on second place and Bernie Sanders is in third. Buttigieg has moved into fourth place. (These lists below do not include anyone who receives less than 5% in one of the current national polls.)
| ABC/WP 10/30 RV |
NBC/WSJ 10/30 RV |
||
| Biden | 30% | Biden | 27% |
| Warren | 23% | Warren | 23% |
| Sanders | 17% | Sanders | 19% |
| Buttigieg | 9% | Buttigieg | 6% |
| Klobuchar | 5% | ||
| FOX NEWS 10/30 RV |
RCP Average 10/31 RV |
||
| Biden | 31% | Biden | 29.1% |
| Warren | 21% | Warren | 20.3% |
| Sanders | 19% | Sanders | 17.1% |
| Buttigieg | 7% | Buttigieg | 7.1% |
Below are the fundraising and spending totals and cash on hand through September 30, 2019, which is the last day for which fund raising and expenditure totals had to be filed with the Federal Election Commission. The next filing period closes on December 31, 2019. These results are then matched with the end of October general standing.
| Cand -idate |
Total Raised | Total Spent | Cash on Hand | RCP Average 10/31 | Morning Consult 10/28 |
| Sanders | $74.4M | $40.6M | $33.7M | 17.1 | 20.0 |
| Warren | 60.3 | 34.6 | 25.7 | 20.3 | 20.0 |
| Buttigieg | 51.5 | 28.2 | 23.4 | 7.1 | 7.0 |
| *Steyer | 49.6 | 47.0 | 2.6 | .9 | 1.0 |
| Biden | 37.8 | 28.8 | 9.0 | 29.1 | 32.0 |
| Harris | 36.9 | 26.4 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 6.0 |
| *Delaney | 21.4 | 20.8 | 10.6 | xx | 1.0 |
| Booker | 18.5 | 14.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Klobuchar | 17.5 | 13.8 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Yang | 14.5 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Gabbard | 8.6 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Castro | 7.4 | 8.9 | 1.1 | xx | 1.0 |
| Williamson | 6.1 | 5.4 | 0.7 | xx | 1.0 |
| Bennet | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | .7 | 1.0 |
| Bullock | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | xx | 0 |
| Sestak | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | xx | xx |
*Steyer and Delaney are primarily if not completely, self-funding.
Every election season brings something new. This season there is a new phenomenon made possible by the internet. Rather than making a single contribution and then being done for the season, individuals are making dozens if not hundreds of small contributions.
For example, one of Bernie Sanders supporters had contributed 850 times by the end of June without reaching the maximum contribution limit. That particular contributor has made as many as 20 contributions in a single day.
Federal Election Commission data shows that at least 1,900 people have contributed 50 times or more to a single candidate. More than half of the 1900 donors are Sanders contributors. Even the Trump campaign has at least 250 of these multiple givers. [WSJ 10/25/19]
50% of registered voters, including 49% of men and 51% of women, think this country is “definitely/probably” ready for a gay or lesbian president. On the other hand, 37% of registered voters, including 39% of men and 34% of women, say this country is “definitely/probably” not ready for a gay or lesbian president.
68% of Democrats, 52% of Independents and 29% of Republicans are “definitely/probably” ready for a gay or lesbian president.
The country is ready for a female president. 73% of registered voters, including 72% of women and 75% of men, are “definitely/probably” ready for a female president. Only 18% of registered voters are “definitely/probably not” ready for a female president. [POLITICO/Morning Consult 10/28/19]
What are the odds?
Here are the odds for who is likely to win the 2020 Democratic nominating fight as of 11/1/2019.
Elizabeth Warren +100 (1/1)
Joe Biden +400 (4/1)
Bernie Sanders +800 (8/1)
Pete Buttigieg +800 (8/1)
Andrew Yang +1000 (10/1)
Tom Steyer +2200 (22/1)
Kamala Harris +2500 (25/1)
Tulsi Gabbard +2500 (25/1)
Amy Klobuchar +5000 (50/1)
Cory Booker +5000 (50/1)
Beto O’Rourke +6600 (66/1)
If you want to get on Scott’s mailing list, you can email him at scott@coolmediapr.com.
Democratic Debates of the 2020 Nomination Season
5th Debate – Tyler Perry Studios, Atlanta, GA – November 20, 2019
Hosted by MSNBC and The Washington Post
For the first time, the 4 moderators are women: Ashley Parker, Kristen Welker, Rachel Maddow, and Andrea Mitchell
10 candidates have qualified
Candidates can qualify up to November 13
To qualify, a candidate is required to have:
– at least 165,000 unique donors with a minimum of 600 unique donors per state in at least 20 states
– 3% support or more in at least 4 DNC approved polls nationally or in early voting states
– 5% or more in two DNC approved early-state polls
6th Debate – UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, Los Angeles, CA – December 19, 2019
Hosted by POLITICO and PBS Newshour
Moderators to be named
Live on PBS, Streamed online on Politico and PBS Newshour digital platform
Candidates can qualify up to December 12
To qualify, a candidate is required to have:
– At least 200,000 unique donors with a minimum of 800 unique donors per state in at least 20 states
– 4% support or more in at least 4 DNC approved polls nationally or in early states
– 6% or more in two DNC approved early-state polls
7th-12th Debates – Locations TBD
The 7th Debate is likely to be held prior to the Iowa Caucuses
The 8th Debate – ABC/New Hampshire WMUR-TV – likely on February 11, 2020
Audience size
- 1st Debate – Miami – June 26 – 15,300,000 viewers; June 27 – 18,000,000 viewers
- 2nd Debate – Detroit – July 30 – 8,700,000 viewers; July 31 – 10,720,000 viewers
- 3rd Debate – Houston – September 12 – 14,000,000+ viewers
- 4th Debate – Westerville – October 15 – 8,300,000 viewers
- 5th Debate – Tyler Perry Studios – Atlanta, GA – November 20 – TBD
- 6th Debate – UCLA – Los Angeles, CA – December 19 – TBD
Since 1972, every Democratic presidential nominee won 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place in the Iowa Caucus and 1st or 2nd in the New Hampshire primary.
In Iowa, the eventual nominee has been the 1st place finisher 7 times, 2nd place finisher one time and 3rd place finisher two times. [Charlie Cook]
In New Hampshire, the eventual nominee has been the 1st place finisher 5 times and 2nd place finisher 5 times. [Charlie Cook]
The Democratic primary schedule is front loaded. (Charlie Cook)
- In February 2020 – 193 delegates will be selected.
- On Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020 – 1683 delegates will be selected.
- On March 10, 2020 – 402 delegates will be selected.
By March 10, 2020, 2278 delegates will have been selected. This is slightly more than half of the 4,532 total delegates at the convention.
The Democratic nominating convention is scheduled for July 13-16, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Republican Primary
Announced/Running
Donald Trump – President – Age 72
William Weld I – former Governor of Massachusetts – Age 73
Joe Walsh – former one-term GOP member of Congress from Illinois – Age 57
Mark Sanford – former Governor of South Carolina, former member of Congress – Age 59
As of October 10th, at least five states have announced that they are canceling their Republican primaries or caucuses in 2020 to “save money”: Alaska, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada and South Carolina.
There will be no debates.
The Republican nominating convention is scheduled for August 24-27, 2020 in Charlotte, NC.
The General Election
The following are the results of general election surveys taken 12
months before the election.
(Note the differences in the surveys from WP/ABC and FOX surveys of registered voters which were taken at the same time.)
| WP/ABC 10/30/19 |
FOX 10/30/19 |
WP/ ABC |
FOX | ||||
| T | Dem | T | Dem | ||||
| Trump vs Biden | 39% | 56% | 39% | 51% | Biden | +17 | +12 |
| Trump vs Sanders | 41% | 55% | 41% | 49% | Sanders | +14 | +8 |
| Trump vs Warren | 40% | 55% | 41% | 46% | Warren | +15 | +5 |
| Trump vs Buttigieg | 41% | 52% | 41% | 41% | Buttigieg | +11 | +0 |
| CNN 10/20/19 | Survey USA 10/16/19 | |||
| T | Dem | T | Dem | |
| Trump vs Biden | 43% | 53% | 40% | 55% |
| Trump vs Sanders | 43% | 53% | 44% | 50% |
| Trump vs Warren | 44% | 52% | 44% | 48% |
| Trump vs Buttigieg | 44% | 50% | 43% | 44% |