The 59th presidential election will take place on November 3, 2020. 193 days from today.
Running in the Democratic Primary
28 individuals announced their desire to seek the Democratic nomination for president. As of April 8, 2020, twenty-seven of these folks have decided to end their candidacies.
The age of the one person still in the race is 77 years of age.
Joe Biden (D) – former Vice President, former U.S. Senator – Age 77
Twenty-six have left the field
Mike Gravel (D) – former U.S. Senator – Age 88
Eric Swalwell D) – U.S. Representative –Age 39
John Hickenlooper (D) – Governor of Colorado – Age 67
Jay Inslee (D) – Governor of Washington – Age 68
Seth Moulton (D) – U.S. Representative – 40
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 52
Bill DeBlasio (D) – Mayor of New York, New York – Age 58
Wayne Messam (D) – Mayor of Miramar, Florida – Age 44
Tim Ryan (D) – U.S. Representative – Age 45
Beto O’Rourke (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 46
Steve Bullock (D) – Governor of Montana – Age 53
Joe Sestak (D) – former U.S. Representative – 67
Kamala Harris (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
Julian Castro (D) – former HUD Secretary – Age 44
Marianne Williamson – Spiritualist, teacher – Age 66
Cory Booker (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 49
John Delaney (D) – former U.S. Representative – Age 56, the first person to announce for president in 2017
Andrew Yang – Entrepreneur – Age 44
Michael Bennet (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 54
Patrick Duval (D) – former Governor – Age 63
Tom Steyer (D) – Entrepreneur – Age 62
Pete Buttigieg (D) – former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana – Age 38
Amy Klobuchar (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 59
Mike Bloomberg (D) – former Mayor of New York – Age 77
Elizabeth Warren (D) – U.S. Senator – Age 70
Tulsi Gabbard (D – U.S Representative Age 38
Bernie Sanders (D) U.S Senator Age 78
Since 1972, every Democratic presidential nominee has won first, second or third place in Iowa or first or second place in New Hampshire until now. Biden broke the mold.
At the time he suspended his campaign Bernie Sanders trailed Biden by 357 votes–1293 for Biden, 937 for Sanders–even though Sanders won the California primary 221-172.
1,991 delegate votes are required to win the nomination on the first ballot of the 2020 Democratic convention.
If no one receives the necessary number of votes on the first ballot, 771 super or automatic delegates are then able to vote on subsequent ballots. 2,375 delegate votes are required to win the nomination thereafter.
The 1952 Democratic Convention was the last time either convention went beyond the first ballot.
The question now is whether there will be an actual in-person Democratic national convention. Most recently, half the staff previously hired for the democratic convention were laid off.
Republican Primary
Announced/Running
Donald Trump – President – Age 72
William Weld I – former Governor of Massachusetts – Age 73
The average age of these candidates is 72.5 years
Have left the field
Mark Sanford – former Governor of South Carolina, former member of Congress – Age 59
Joe Walsh – former one-term GOP member of Congress from Illinois – Age 57
A large number of Republican primaries and caucuses have been canceled.
There will be no debates.
The Republican nominating convention is scheduled for August 24-27, 2020 in Charlotte, NC. There has been no public discussion of the possible cancelation of the convention.
The General Election
The upcoming presidential election is not, in fact, a national election. The election will be decided primarily in 7 states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nebraska. Donald Trump won all of these states in 2016.
Additionally, there are 5 states that could be in play: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Georgia, and Texas. Trump also won Georgia and Texas while Hillary Clinton won Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
| Trump | Biden |
|
| Real Clear Politics 4/2-4/16 Average | 42.5% | 48.3% |
| NBC/WSJ 4/15 | 42% | 49% |
| Harvard-Harris 4/16 | 47% | 53% |
| Econ/YouGov 4/14 | 43% | 48% |
| Fox News 4/7 | 42% | 42% |
| Monmouth 4/7 | 44% | 48% |
| CNBC 4/6 | 44% | 39% |
| CNN 4/6 | 42% | 53% |
| Quinnipiac 4/6 | 41% | 49% |
| All polls of registered voters except Harvard, which is likely voters | ||
41% of Americans are positive in their feelings toward the President while 51% have negative feelings toward him. Notably, those with “very negative” feelings – 43% — exceed the number who are “very and somewhat” positive toward the President – 41%.
37% have positive feelings toward Joe Biden while 41% have negative feelings toward him. Those with “very negative” feelings – 25% — are 12 points less that those who have “very and somewhat” positive feelings toward Biden.
Americans were asked whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden would be better on several issues. Here are the results.
| Trump | Biden |
|
| Dealing with the economy | 47% | 36% |
| Having the ability to handle a crisis | 38% | 47% |
| Responding to the coronavirus | 36% | 45% |
| [NBC/WSJ 4/15/20] | ||
“More important, Biden’s goal isn’t to be a more ‘exciting’ alternative to Trump but to be the opposite of Trump. Biden isn’t going to be a ratings superhero. He’s not going to pack stadiums to the rafters with supporters. His message is basically this: I’m pretty boring but steady and competent. That may not work every year, but it is well-suited for a time of chaos and confusion.” [Amy Walter/Cook Political Report/4/2/2020]
What are the odds?
Here are the odds for who is likely to win the 2020 presidential election as of April 14, 2020.
Donald Trump -110, 10/11
Joe Biden +125, 5/4