The 59th presidential election will take place on November 3, 2020. 18 days from today.
61% of American voters plan to vote before election day. This includes 70% of Democrats, 48% of Republicans, and 65% of Independents. In 2016, 40% of voters voted before election day.
Nearly half of registered American voters plan to vote by mail (32%) or by dropping off (17%) their ballot.
The 51% of voters who plan to vote in person at a polling place, include 39% of Democrats, 71% of Republicans and 47% of Independents. [8/21 WP/Univ. of Maryland poll]
NBCnews.com/planyourvote, is a good source for voter/voting information in the coming election.
Ranked Choice Voting
The Maine Supreme Judicial Court has ruled unanimously that Ranked-choice voting will be used in the November 2020 presidential election. [9/22/20]
The General Election
A decade high 85% of state legislative incumbents are seeking re-election this year. 79.6% of incumbents advanced to the general election without a primary challenge. 35% of state legislative races in 2020 have candidates from only one of the two major parties. [ Balletopedia 9/2/20]
At least 367 elections this fall are rematches between the same candidates who ran for the office in 2018. Rematches in 2020 include:
- 24 elections for the U.S. House won by Democrats and 10 by Republicans in 2018
- 1 state executive election
- 339 state legislative elections
- 3 local races
Republicans won 205 (56%) of the 2018 elections that are now rematches while Democrats won 160 (44%). [Ballotpedia]
52% of Republicans, 43% of Democrats, and 31% of Independents believe it is better to have one party control the presidency and the Congress. [Gallup 10/7/20]
Following are the personal positive/negative feelings toward the candidates for President and Vice-President. There is not much difference between the positive feelings toward Trump and Biden but there is considerable difference between the negative feelings toward them.
| Positive | Negative | |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 39% | 55% |
| Joe Biden | 43% | 41% |
| Mike Pence | 36% | 44% |
| Kamala Harris | 40% | 38% |
[NBC/WSJ 10/1/20]
Here are comparisons between Trump and Biden on several issues and personal characteristics. Biden leads on all except dealing with the economy.
| Trump better | Biden better | |
|---|---|---|
| Dealing with the economy | 48% | 41% |
| Dealing with crime and violence | 41% | 45% |
| Making appointments to the Supreme Court | 37% | 46% |
| Dealing with the Coronavirus | 35% | 52% |
| Dealing with health care | 34% | 53% |
| Dealing with race relations | 26% | 55% |
| Addressing issues of concern to women | 25% | 46% |
Personal characteristics
| Trump better | Biden better | |
|---|---|---|
| Having necessary mental and physical health to be President | 40% | 41% |
| Having strong leadership qualities | 40% | 45% |
| Having the right temperament to be President | 26% | 58% |
[NBC/WSJ 10/1/20]
93% of Trump supporters are enthusiastic about supporting him with 71% being very enthusiastic. Biden supporters are a bit less enthusiastic in their support of him. 86% are enthusiastic with 52% being very enthusiastic. [ABC/WP 10/9/20]
Current National Presidential Scorecard
| Trump | Biden | |
|---|---|---|
| ABC/WP10/9LV | 42% | 52% |
| Fox 10/6 LV | 42% | 52% |
| Economist/YouGov 10/6 LV | 43% | 51% |
| Hill/HarrisX 10/6 RV | 40% | 45% |
| CNBC 10/4 LV | 43% | 51% |
| Survey/USA 10/4 LV | 43% | 53% |
| CNN 10/4 LV | 41% | 51% |
As of October 9th, the RCP average is Biden 51.6% – Trump 42.0%.
The upcoming presidential election is not in reality a national election. WW is focused on a list of seven states most likely to be the ultimate battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
| Trump | Biden | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 45.50% | 48.20% | 10/8 | RCP Avg |
| Florida | 44.30% | 48.00% | 10/7 | RCP Avg |
| Michigan | 42.70% | 49.40% | 10/7 | RCP Avg |
| Minnesota | 41% | 50.40% | 9/24 | RCP Avg |
| North Carolina | 47% | 48.30% | 10/6 | RCP Avg |
| Pennsylvania | 44% | 51% | 10/5 | RCP Avg |
| Wisconsin | 44% | 49.5 % | 10/5 | RCP Avg |
2020 Debate Audiences
First Presidential Debate – 73.1 million viewers
(First presidential debate in 2016 – 84 million viewers)
Vice Presidential Debate – 57.9 million viewers
Second Presidential Debate – Cancelled
Third Presidential Debate – October 22, 2020
Belmont University, Nashville, TN
Moderator: Kristen Welker, NBC
What are the odds?
Here are the odds, as of October 11, 2020, if you want to place a bet on the 2020 presidential election.
| Joe Biden | -200 | (Bettor needs to bet $200 to win $100. If it is a winning bet the bettor ends up with $300.) |
| Donald Trump | +170 | (Bettor needs to bet $100 to win $170. A winning bet ends up with the better receiving $270.) |
[sportsbetting.ag]