Approval of the Congress was growing after the election. Since mid-May it has dropped but seems to be starting upward again and then it dropped again.
| Approve | Disapprove | |
|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Pol. 9/1/21 | 28.5% | 60.3% |
| Real Clear Pol. 8/3/21 | 31.4% | 59.6% |
| Real Clear Pol. 6/15/21 | 28.8% | 60.5% |
| Real Clear Pol. 5/18/21 | 35.0% | 56.3% |
| Real Clear Pol. 5/4/21 | 36.3% | 55.5% |
| Real Clear Pol. 4/6/21 | 34.3% | 57.0% |
| Real Clear Pol. 3/2/21 | 29.7% | 60.0% |
| Real Clear Pol. 2/22/21 | 26.3% | 60.0% |
| Real Clear Pol. 1/5/21 | 18.7% | 70.3% |
The House of Representatives
In the House, 419 out of 435 members (96%) are of the same party as the Presidential candidate who carried their district in 2020. [Axios/Doug Sosnik 8/8/21]
Based on the 2010 and 2020 censuses, of the 25 fastest growing districts, 18 of those districts are currently held by Republicans. Of the 25 slowest growing districts, all of which are losing population, 16 of those districts are currently held by Republicans.
Non-Hispanic whites fell from 64% to just 57.8% of the population.
Hispanic residents were 18.7% of the population compared to 16.3% in the 2010 Census. [David Wasserman/Cook Political Report 8/13/21]
After the decennial census, reapportionment is in order to make congressional districts the same size. Some states lose seats other states gain them.
In this instance 6 states will gain seats and 7 states will lose seats.
The following states will gain districts:
- Texas +2 (36 seats to 38 seats)
- Florida +1 (27 seats to 28 seats)
- Montana +1(1 seat to 2 seats)
- Colorado +1 (5 seats to 6 seats)
- North Carolina +1 (13 seats to 14 seats)
- Oregon +1(5 seats to 6 seats)
The following states will lose seats:
- California -1 (53 seats to 52 seats)
- Illinois – 1 (18 seats to 17 seats)
- Michigan – 1 (14 seats to 13 seats)
- Ohio – 1 (16 seats to 15 seats)
- Pennsylvania – 1 (8 seats to 17 seats)
- New York – 1 (27 seats to 26 seats)
- West Virginia – 1 (3 seats to 2 seats)
Here is who has control over how the House districts are drawn:
- 187 districts – Republican politicians
- 75 districts – Democrat politicians
- 71 districts – Both Republican and Democrat politicians
- 96 districts – Independent Commissions
- 6 districts – six states have only one district
Republicans only need to redraw themselves into five Democratic congressional districts to take back the majority.
Washington Watch uses the Cook Political Report for its report on elections in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Currently:
- Democrats – 220 seats
- Republicans – 212 seats
- Vacancies – 3 seats
- OH – 11, special election 11/2/21 – Dem seat
- OH – 15, special election 11/2/21 – Rep seat
- FL – 20, special election 1/11/22 – Dem Seat
Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 seats in the mid-terms.
“To hold the House in 2022, Democrats would likely need a combination of factors to break their way: aggressive gerrymanders in New York and Illinois, favorable commission outcomes or court rulings striking GOP gerrymanders, a rebound in Biden’s approval and weak turnout among casual Trump voters. It’s not an impossible scenario, but the GOP’s path to 218 seats is much easier to envision today.” [Cook Political/David Wasserman 9/8/21]
The Senate
94 out of 100 Senators are of the same party as the Presidential candidate who carried their state in 2020. [Axios/Doug Sosnik 8/8/21]
[WW uses Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections for the Senate chart below. When those two organizations do not agree, WW uses Sabato as a tie breaker.]
- Republicans – 50
- Democrats – 48
- Independents – 2
| Democrats | Republicans | Independent | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seats not up in 2022 | 34 | 30 | 2 |
| Safe in 2022 | 10 | 15 | |
| Padilla | Murkowski | ||
| Bennett | AL – open | ||
| Blumenthal | Boozman | ||
| Schatz | Grassley | ||
| Duckworth | Crapo | ||
| Van Hollen | Young | ||
| Schumer | Moran | ||
| Wyden | Paul | ||
| Leahy | Kennedy | ||
| Murray | MO – open | ||
| OH – open | |||
| Hoeven | |||
| Lankford | |||
| Scott | |||
| Thune | |||
| Lee | |||
| Likely | 0 | 1 | |
| Rubio | |||
| Lean | 4 | 1 | |
| Kelly | Johnson | ||
| Warnock | NC – open | ||
| Hassan | |||
| Cortez Masto | |||
| Toss Up | 0 | 1 | |
| PA – open |