In 2020, Biden won only 500 or so counties, but together they are responsible for 71% of the American economy. Trump won over 2,500 counties, responsible for only 29%. [David Brooks, NYT, 8/2/23]
President Joe Biden on July 29, 2023, publicly acknowledged his seventh grandchild for the first time, while adding that his granddaughter is “not a political issue.”
The president’s son, Hunter Biden, and Lunden Roberts settled a paternity suit over their daughter, Navy, in an Arkansas court last month. Some Republicans, including presidential candidate Ron DeSantis, have taken jabs at Biden for not counting Navy among his grandchildren in public remarks.
President Biden’s job approval ratings (7/30)
| Date | NBC | WP/ABC | CNN | FOX | QUINNIPIAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG ’23 | xxx | xxx | xxx | 42/58 | 39/55 |
| JULY ’23 | xxx | xxx | 41/59 | xxx | 40/53 |
| JUNE ’23 | 43/53 | xxx | xxx | 44/55 | 42/54 |
| MAY ’23 | xxx | xxx | 41/59 | 42/58 | 38/57 |
| APR ’23 | 41/54 | 37/56 | xxx | 44/55 | xxx |
| MAR ’23 | xxx | xxx | xxx | 44/56 | 38/57 |
| FEB ’23 | xxx | 43/53 | xxx | xxx | 40/55 |
| JAN ’23 | 46/50 | 40/53 | 46/54 | 45/54 | 38/53 |
| DEC ’22 | xxx | xxx | 48/52 | 44/56 | 43/49 |
| NOV ’22 | 44/53 | 45/53 | xxx | xxx | 36/55 |
| OCT ’22 | 45/52 | xxx | xxx | xxx | xxx |
| OCT ’22 | 45/52 | 43/53 | 42/58 | 46/53 | 37/54 |
| SEPT ’22 | 45/52 | 39/55 | 40/53 | 43/56 | 41/53 |
| AUG ’22 | 42/55 | xxx | xxx | 41/55 | 43/53 |
| JULY ’22 | xxx | xxx | xxx | 36/58 | 33/59 |
| JUNE’ 22 | xxx | xxx | xxx | 43/57 | 35/56 |
| MAY’22 | xxx | xxx | xxx | xxx | 38/55 |
| MAY ’22 | 42/54 | xxx | xxx | xxx | xxx |
| APR ’22 | xxx | 42/52 | 41/59 | 45/53 | 40/51 |
| APR ’22 | xxx | xxx | xxx | xxx | 35/55 |
| MAR ’22 | xxx | xxx | xxx | xxx | 40/54 |
| MAR’ 22 | 41/54 | xxx | xxx | 45/54 | 38/55 |
| FEB ’22 | xxx | 38/57 | 42/57 | xxx | 37/56 |
| JAN ’22 | 44/54 | xxx | xxx | 47/52 | 34/54 |
| DEC’21 | xxx | xxx | 48/52 | 47/51 | xxx |
| NOV ’21 | xxx | xxx | 45/54 | xxx | xxx |
| NOV ’21 | xxx | 38/57 | 48/52 | 44/54 | 38/53 |
| Approval | Disapproval | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 42.1% | 54.1% |
| On the economy | 38.3% | 57.6% |
| On foreign policy | 41.7% | 52.7% |
Gallup now does monthly or semi-monthly surveys of all adults. WW will include a periodic polling summary of Registered and Likely Voters by FiveThirtyEight.
| Gallup (All Adults) | FiveThirtyEight (Reg/Likely | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Approval | Disapproval | Approval | Disapproval |
| 8/23/23 | 42.0% | 53.0% | 40.6% | 54.6% |
| 7/27/23 | 40.0% | 55.0% | 41.0% | 54.0% |
| 6/22/23 | 43.0% | 56.0% | 41.5% | 53.8% |
| 5/24/23 | 39.0% | 57.0% | 40.9% | 55.0% |
| 4/25/23 | 37.0% | 59.0% | 42.1% | 53.6% |
| 3/23/23 | 40.0% | 56.0% | 42.7% | 52.8% |
| 1/22/23 | 41.0% | 54.0% | 43.9% | 51.9% |
| 12/2/22 | 40.0% | 55.0% | 42.9% | 53.0% |
| 9/16/22 | 42.0% | 56.0% | 42.5% | 52.0% |
| 8/23/22 | 44.0% | 53.0% | 42.7% | 52.8% |
| 5/22/22 | 41.0% | 54.0% | 41.1% | 54.3% |
| 4/19/22 | 41.0% | 56.0% | 42.4% | 53.1% |
| 3/18/22 | 42.0% | 54.0% | 42.1% | 52.8% |
| 2/17/22 | 41.0% | 55.0% | 41.4% | 53.0% |
| 1/16/22 | 40.0% | 56.0% | 42.5% | 52.1% |
In the United States. Ronald Reagan was the first divorced president in history. None have divorced while in office. [NYT 8/13/23]
For more than 30 years, the Republican Party was defined by Ronald Reagan’s famous three-legged stool: a coalition of fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, and national security hawks.
Today, a majority of Republicans oppose many of the positions that defined the party as recently as a decade ago.
Republicans now side against the key positions that defined Reagan’s stool and George W. Bush’s re-election campaign.
| Republicans in 2005 | Republicans in 2023 | |
|---|---|---|
| Oppose same-sex marriage | 78% | 36% |
| Prefer reducing debt to protecting entitlements | 62% | 29% |
| Think America should be active abroad | 53% | 24% |
| All three | 30% | 7% |
The Republican Party has been redefined by the rise of Donald J Trump’s conservative populism. [NYT 8/10/23]
Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are divided into a half dozen groups. (Based on the Times/Siena poll)
The Moderate Establishment – 14% — Highly educated, affluent- social moderate or liberals – Never Trump
The Traditional Conservative – 26% — Old fashioned economic and social conservatives – Don’t love Trump but support him.
The Right Wing – 26% — Very conservative. Disproportionately evangelical. – Love Trump more than any other group.
The Blue Collar Populists – 12% — Socially moderate, economic populists deeply conservative views on race and immigration.
The Libertarian Conservatives – 14% — Value freedom and small government.
The Newcomers – 8% – They are young, diverse, and moderate.
[NYT The Tilt – Nate Cohn 8/16/23]
Vice President Harris cast her 31st tie breaking vote on July 12 to invoke cloture on the nomination of Kalpana Kotagal to the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. In doing so, Harris tied with John C. Calhoun for the most Vice-Presidential tie-breaking votes in U.S. history.
Of these 31 tie-breaking votes – 25 have advanced the confirmation of judges and administration officials and 6 were in relation to a pair of budget reconciliation bills.
It took Calhoun seven years to reach that number – during the presidencies of John Quincy and Andrew Jackson. Harris reached 31 tie-breaking votes in less than three years.
In 3rd place with the most tie-breaking votes, John Adams – 29
In 4th place, George Dallas with 19 tie-breaking votes.
As of July 19, 37 Vice Presidents have cast 299 tie-breaking votes with 156 cast during the 19th century. Less than a quarter of the way into the 21st century, four Vice Presidents have cast 52 tie-breaking votes, not far off from the 60 tie-breakers case during the entire 20th century. [Ballotpedia 7/13/23]
Judges Nominated and Confirmed to Date
As of August 21, 2023, the United States Senate has confirmed 140 federal judges nominated by President Biden: one Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court, 36 judges for the United States Courts of Appeals, and 103 judges for the United States District Courts.
There are 31 nominations awaiting Senate action: 4 for the Courts of Appeals and 25 for the District Courts. There are 7 vacancies in the U.S. Courts of Appeals, 61 vacancies on the U.S. District Courts, and 2 vacancies in the United States Court of International Trade.
The chart below reflects the number of Article III court judges appointed by every U.S. president since Jimmy Carter.
| Total | Supreme Ct | Appeals Ct | District Ct | Int’l Trade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden – 2 years | 140 | 1 | 36 | 103 | |
| Trump – 4 years | 234 | 3 | 54 | 174 | 3 |
| Obama – 8 years | 325 | 2 | 55 | 268 | |
| GW Bush – 8 years | 325 | 2 | 62 | 261 | |
| Clinton – 8 years | 373 | 2 | 66 | 305 | |
| GHW Bush – 4 years | 192 | 2 | 42 | 148 | |
| Reagan – 8 years | 376 | 3 | 83 | 290 | |
| Carter – 4 years | 259 | 0 | 56 | 203 |
[USCourts/Wikipedia/List of federal judges appointed by Joe Biden]
There are roughly 4,000 politically appointed positions in the executive branch and independent agencies, including more than 1,200 that require Senate confirmation.
The Washington Post and the Partnership for Public Service are tracking 811 of those 1200 positions.
- 530 people have been confirmed by the Senate.
- 103 nominees are being considered by the Senate.
- 0 awaiting formal nomination.
- 79 positions have no Biden nominee.
- 98 appointees are serving in termed positions or were held over from previous administrations.
[WP 9/1/23]
The following are the favorability ratings for a variety of political leaders based on the Real Clear Politics averages for 8/29/23.
| Favorable | Unfavorable | |
|---|---|---|
| Biden | 40.2 | 54.6 |
| Trump | 38.4 | 56.9 |
| DeSantis | 36.7 | 47.8 |
| Harris | 37.0 | 53.3 |
| McCarthy | 34.0 | 41.4 |
| Schumer | 29.8 | 42.8 |
| Jeffries | 26.6 | 27.8 |
| McConnell | 19.8 | 58.0 |